Carbon budgets are not enough: the case for transition milestones

A governance framework can direct a government’s attention to questions that need addressing, support planning and decision-making, and increase accountability.

Most countries aim to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by around the middle of this century. What kind of governance frameworks can best support progress towards meeting those goals?

Some countries have adopted carbon budgets, or interim emissions targets, as a governance framework. These have important advantages compared to an ad hoc approach, and can support a systematic process of planning and monitoring the reduction of emissions.

A difficulty arises from the fact that not all ways of reducing emissions make progress towards the goal of eliminating emissions. And some of the most important steps towards that goal have no immediate effect on emissions. An over-focus on emissions in the near term risks wasting time, wasting investment, and storing up problems for the future.

In this policy brief we propose ‘transition milestones’ as a governance framework focused on the development of zero emission systems. This could focus attention on the most essential near-term steps towards meeting the long-term goal. We discuss the advantages, options, and risks of this framework, and its potential complementarity with carbon budgets.

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